GEOALERT SIDC
3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.| Source | SIDC (RWC-Belgium) |
| Frequency | Daily |
| Format | Encoded data (ISES) |
| Mail header | GEOALERT SIDC |
| SIDC code | xut |
Latest issue
:Issued: 2024 May 08 1259 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/xut #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# GEOALERT BRU129 UGEOA 30512 40508 1259/ 9930/ 13082 20082 30082 99999 PLAIN PREDICTIONS FOR 08 May 2024 10CM FLUX: 207 / AP: 008 PREDICTIONS FOR 09 May 2024 10CM FLUX: 207 / AP: 010 PREDICTIONS FOR 10 May 2024 10CM FLUX: 205 / AP: 032 Solar Active Regions and flaring: The solar flaring activity was at very high levels with several M-class flares and two X-class flares during the last 24 hours. The strongest reported flares were two GOES X1.0 flares which peaked at 01:41 UTC and 05:09 UTC on May 08, produced by NOAA Active Region (AR) 3663 and AR 3664, respectively. During the flares, both source regions (AR 3663 and AR 3664) of the flares had beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. Over the past 24 hours, NOAA AR 3663 (beta-gamma-delta), AR 3664 (beta-gamma-delta), and AR 3668 (beta) were the magnetically complex regions which produced all M-class and X-class flares, whereas other regions were inactive and stable. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at high to very high levels over the next 24 hours possibly with several M-class flares and X-class flares. Coronal mass ejections: A partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) has been detected by Cactus tool at 4:12 UTC on May 08. It is associated with M-class flares from NOAA AR 3664. It has a projected speed of about 459 km/s and a projected width of 162 degree (as measured by Cactus tool). Further analysis is going-on to investigate the potential Earth-directed components. Coronal holes: Two coronal holes (CH) have started to cross the central meridian on May 8, with one CH spanning 15 N - 40 N (positive polarity) and another CH spanning 29 S - 43 S (negative polarity). The solar wind from these coronal holes may enhance the solar wind environment near Earth on May 11. Solar wind: Solar wind parameters are transitioning from fast to slow solar wind regime. The solar wind speed decreased from 550 km/s to 450 km/s. The North-South component (Bz) ranged between -4 and 5 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged between 2 nT and 6 nT. We expect a transition to slow solar wind regime in the next 24 hours. Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally at quiet to unsettled conditions (NOAA Kp and K BEL 1 to 3). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected in the next 24 hours. Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the coming 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal level and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 160, BASED ON 08 STATIONS. 99999 UGEOI 30512 40508 1259/ 07/// 1//// 22041 3009/ 4//// 8//// 9//// 99999 NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 07 1140 1150 1201 S18E03 M2.4 2N 86/3664 07 1243 1254 1259 N27W53 M1.5 SF 84/3663 III/1 07 1316 1325 1332 ////// M1.0 84/3663 /1 07 1332 1335 1339 ////// M1.0 86/3664 36M/1I/1 07 1621 1630 1636 ////// M8.2 84/3663 /2M/1I/136 07 1958 2022 2034 ////// M2.1 86/3664 07 2113 2126 2142 ////// M3.3 84/3663 07 2142 2153 2208 ////// M3.2 84/3663 08 0133 0141 0148 ////// X1.0 B 84/3663 08 0216 0227 0236 ////// M3.4 /////// 08 0319 0327 0338 ////// M1.8 /////// II/1 08 0437 0509 0532 ////// X1.0 F 86/3664 II/2I/2I/3 8V/2 08 0644 0653 0703 ////// M7.1 86/3664 08 0729 0741 0753 ////// M4.5 F 84/3663 08 0931 0937 0942 ////// M1.8 /////// 08 0943 0948 0956 ////// M2.1 F 84/3663 08 1109 1122 1126 ////// M4.1 84/3663 08 1126 1204 1217 ////// M8.6 /////// END UGEOR 30512 40508 1259/ ///// ///// 99999 USSPS 21305 06161 25832 62002 42324 3/801 63003 45930 0/101 64087 43526 57546 80088 20218 57573 83012 41907 21311 87027 15128 2/802 85020 21817 31421 86001 23407 0/101 84001 40408 0/101 88003 17117 3/801 USSPS 81202 07009 15432 37051 44123 57616 35001 42822 1/801 41011 42706 3/802 38079 20521 57644 43003 21517 11308 44001 22910 1/801 46006 16815 3/801 45020 14526 2/801 USSPS 32404 06051 15122 53002 41724 2/801 54000 45928 0/101 55031 43326 37620 56027 21319 57522 58004 41607 2/801 60006 22417 31413 61000 24108 0/101 62008 15627 2/801 63000 17817 0/101 USSPS 31405 06073 19932 81002 46229 2/801 83002 41823 2/801 84053 43426 35626 86083 21119 55639 87001 22605 0/101 88012 41408 21306 89001 10313 0/101 90005 22416 25411 91001 23908 1/801 92011 15627 2/801 93001 17916 1/801 UMAGF 30503 40508 1004/ 07060 1/014 22223 32212 UMAGF 31523 40508 0000/ 07007 1/009 22222 33322 #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # # # Website http://www.sidc.be. # # E-mail sidc-support@oma.be # # To unsubscribe http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # # # # Legal notices: # # - Intellectual Property Rights: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf # # - Liability Disclaimer: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf # # - Use and processing of your personal information: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf # #--------------------------------------------------------------------#
Details
The Geoalert message starts with the code GEOALERT BRUXXX, where xxx is the day-of-the-year number.Besides the ISES codes like UGEOA, UGEOI, UGEOR and USSPS, this message contains the following information:
PLAIN
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
99999
This gives the predicted 10.7 cm radioflux and the predicted Ap index for 3 days starting on the date of the message
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE
This is the header of a table that lists all major events.
DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.
Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.